Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Marssignature
W1sh- · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Khan
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 7 games
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 7 games
Bane
antoha · 6 games
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 6 games
Skywrath Magesignature
goddam · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
255 picks · 318 bans
Tidehunter
249 picks · 378 bans
Lion
235 picks · 131 bans
Monkey King
232 picks · 512 bans
Lina
228 picks · 482 bans
Pangolier
220 picks · 292 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 247 bans
Tiny
211 picks · 284 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:34
Brame 56%Khan 44%
The model gave 56% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 45:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaNefrit
Troll Warlordlayme
RazorW1sh-
BatriderPikachu
LinaCTOMAHEH1
TidehunterpJonn
MarsSkyLark
Liongoddam
UndyingSsaSpartan
DisruptorAccell
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Brame 54%Khan 46%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaNefrit
TidehunterpJonn
Void SpiritW1sh-
Storm SpiritPikachu
IoSkyLark
Troll Warlordlayme
Monkey KingSsaSpartan
Linagoddam
MarsCTOMAHEH1
SilencerAccell
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 59%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2