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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.

Team SMG

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 16 games
81%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
93%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
342 picks · 178 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 102 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 416 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
270 picks · 530 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 366 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 336 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
237 picks · 245 bans
59%
Abaddon
Abaddon
216 picks · 240 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength62% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 77%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect