OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 19 games
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 16 games
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
342 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
285 picks · 102 bans
Mars
271 picks · 416 bans
Lina
270 picks · 530 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 366 bans
Luna
238 picks · 336 bans
Shadow Demon
237 picks · 245 bans
Abaddon
216 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength62% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 77%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect