BTS Pro Series Season 8. Америка · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 31 game
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 26 games
Marssignature
Oscar · 24 games
Timbersawoften banned
Oscar · 24 games
Abaddonoften banned
Panda · 22 games
Hoodwink
Matthew · 18 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 18 games
Miranasignature
Michael · 17 games
Infamous
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sacred · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
Berna · 6 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ArzenT · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Michael · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pamplona · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Yor · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
349 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
294 picks · 108 bans
Mars
263 picks · 408 bans
Lina
256 picks · 507 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 348 bans
Luna
236 picks · 333 bans
Shadow Demon
225 picks · 235 bans
Nyx Assassin
218 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength62% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total67% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:22
NoPing VPN 63%Infamous 37%
The model gave 63% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladePakazs
Troll WarlordLumière
TinyDarkMago
MarsSacred
Sand KingOscar
HoodwinkMichael
Miranasl4d1n-
GyrocopterAccel
BanePanda
Game 2prediction correct35:28
NoPing VPN 60%Infamous 40%
The model gave 60% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectrePakazs
Templar AssassinLumière
KunkkaDarkMago
LeshracSacred
BeastmasterOscar
TinyMichael
Ogre MagiPanda
OmniknightAccel
Miranasl4d1n-
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 67%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2