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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dream Makerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 13 games
46%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
92%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Moon · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 11 games
64%

Dream Maker

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
czy · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 2 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
TrazaM · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
czy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 170 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 123 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 457 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 520 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
242 picks · 411 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 244 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
234 picks · 328 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:31
Team SMG 69%Dream Maker 31%
The model gave 69% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMidOne
37% · 39 games48% · 142 games
TidehunterNevermine
Tidehunter
Lycan
Lycankpii
48% · 62 games54% · 105 games
Rubickczy
Rubick
Lina
LinaMoon
50% · 130 games45% · 210 games
MarsTrazaM
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAhFu
65% · 72 games
Pangolier
PangolierRoddgeee
52% · 154 games
Game 2prediction correct53:21
Team SMG 68%Dream Maker 32%
The model gave 68% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMidOne
44% · 70 games65% · 93 games
BeastmasterNevermine
Beastmaster
Riki
RikiMoon
45% · 27 games56% · 91 game
Miranaczy
Mirana
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkpii
47% · 38 games49% · 173 games
PangolierTrazaM
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
43% · 94 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
42% · 128 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 81%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2