BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Moon · 12 games
Tusksignature
AhFu · 11 games
Dream Maker
Sand Kingoften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
czy · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
Rubick
czy · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
TrazaM · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Clockwerk
czy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
367 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 123 bans
Lina
265 picks · 457 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 520 bans
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
Mars
242 picks · 411 bans
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 244 bans
Dragon Knight
234 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:31
Team SMG 69%Dream Maker 31%
The model gave 69% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMidOne
TidehunterNevermine
Lycankpii
Rubickczy
LinaMoon
MarsTrazaM
Shadow DemonAhFu
PangolierRoddgeee
Game 2prediction correct53:21
Team SMG 68%Dream Maker 32%
The model gave 68% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMidOne
BeastmasterNevermine
RikiMoon
Miranaczy
Night Stalkerkpii
PangolierTrazaM
BloodseekerRoddgeee
GrimstrokeAhFu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 81%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2