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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Liquidwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 26 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
53%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 30 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 19 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Boxi · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 933 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 423 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 642 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 657 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 943 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 652 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 531 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total50% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:51
Natus Vincere 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:24:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNiku
43% · 341 game54% · 191 game
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
46% · 281 game54% · 352 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Mars
Marspma
48% · 368 games55% · 296 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
47% · 194 games47% · 158 games
DazzletOfu
Dazzle
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
54% · 210 games51% · 397 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 50%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1