BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Liquidwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 26 games
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 30 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
Windrangeroften banned
Boxi · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
600 picks · 933 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 423 bans
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 642 bans
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 657 bans
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 943 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 652 bans
Mars
386 picks · 531 bans
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total50% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:51
Natus Vincere 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:24:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainNiku
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Windrangergotthejuice
Storm SpiritNisha
Marspma
Centaur WarrunnerAce
ClockwerkZayac
DazzletOfu
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
TinyBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 50%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1