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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 11 games
45%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 10 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 7 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 6 games
50%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 639 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
400 picks · 222 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 995 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
374 picks · 358 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
352 picks · 194 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 219 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
TNC Predator 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeGabbi
43% · 65 games44% · 75 games
LinaSumaiL
Lina
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArmel
45% · 67 games49% · 48 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBok
45% · 60 games51% · 161 game
Marsqojqva
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixTims
55% · 140 games55% · 142 games
MiranaTaiga
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressBoomy
57% · 131 game54% · 37 games
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed19:28
TNC Predator 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeGabbi
42% · 71 game64% · 43 games
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Templar Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracArmel
46% · 98 gameslittle data
Lone Druidqojqva
Lone Druid
Bristleback
BristlebackBok
50% · 52 games52% · 175 games
MarsmiCKe
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixTims
44% · 144 games52% · 133 games
LioniNSaNiA
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoomy
44% · 115 games56% · 129 games
SnapfireTaiga
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2