WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
Tiny
Armel · 11 games
Lionsignature
Tims · 10 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 10 games
Snapfire
Boomy · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 6 games
Team Liquid
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
404 picks · 639 bans
Lion
400 picks · 222 bans
Puck
400 picks · 995 bans
Grimstroke
374 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
352 picks · 194 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 219 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
TNC Predator 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeGabbi
LinaSumaiL
Templar AssassinArmel
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Dragon KnightBok
Marsqojqva
PhoenixTims
MiranaTaiga
EnchantressBoomy
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
Game 2prediction missed19:28
TNC Predator 52%Team Liquid 48%
The model gave 52% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeGabbi
Templar AssassinSumaiL
LeshracArmel
Lone Druidqojqva
BristlebackBok
MarsmiCKe
PhoenixTims
LioniNSaNiA
ClockwerkBoomy
SnapfireTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2