BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SBSouth Built Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Brewmaster
AhFu · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Elder Titan
Roddgeee · 4 games
South Built Esports
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Abat · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Enryu · 4 games
Tiny
Bob · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 970 bans
Lion
369 picks · 201 bans
Mars
362 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 361 bans
Snapfire
294 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 218 bans
Death Prophet
281 picks · 628 bans
Void Spirit
272 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% South Built Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:15
Team SMG 60%South Built Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMidOne
BristlebackMarb
Omniknightkpii
TinyBob
LionAhFu
Sand KingEnryu
Death ProphetRoddgeee
Game 2prediction correct35:20
Team SMG 60%South Built Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMidOne
Wraith KingMarb
Enigmakpii
Void SpiritBob
Nyx AssassinAhFu
Dark SeerEnryu
Crystal MaidenRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 68%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2