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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 27 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 20 games
65%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 28 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 19 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
584 picks · 926 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
545 picks · 419 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
493 picks · 661 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 638 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 930 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 644 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 526 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
370 picks · 229 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:34
Team Yandex 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 1:04:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
49% · 200 games44% · 272 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Sniper
SniperChira JUNIOR
55% · 60 games57% · 93 games
ViperNisha
Viper
Largo
LargoNoticed
48% · 24 games45% · 271 game
MarsAce
Mars
Tiny
TinySaksa
49% · 332 games48% · 165 games
MarcitOfu
Marci
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
50% · 460 games55% · 275 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct30:22
Team Yandex 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 51:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
49% · 195 games54% · 195 games
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Sand King
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
53% · 191 game56% · 365 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
43% · 80 games44% · 204 games
AxeAce
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
45% · 543 games65% · 32 games
LargotOfu
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
46% · 193 games53% · 406 games
RingmasterBoxi
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 59%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2