FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 27 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 20 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
Team Liquid
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
Tusk
Boxi · 28 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
584 picks · 926 bans
Tusk
545 picks · 419 bans
Dragon Knight
493 picks · 661 bans
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 638 bans
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 930 bans
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 644 bans
Mars
381 picks · 526 bans
Warlock
370 picks · 229 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:34
Team Yandex 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 1:04:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
WindrangermiCKe
SniperChira JUNIOR
ViperNisha
LargoNoticed
MarsAce
TinySaksa
MarcitOfu
JakiroMalady
Shadow DemonBoxi
Game 2prediction correct30:22
Team Yandex 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 51:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
MuertamiCKe
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
Ember SpiritNisha
BrewmasterNoticed
AxeAce
JakiroMalady
LargotOfu
HoodwinkSaksa
RingmasterBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 59%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2