Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
Team Liquid
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 18 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 17 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 10 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
Razorsignature
qojqva · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
434 picks · 972 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 564 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 708 bans
Mars
345 picks · 583 bans
Grimstroke
309 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
302 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 207 bans
Lion
260 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:25
Brame 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
MorphlingFocus
LeshracSumaiL
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Magnusqojqva
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
LinaTaiga
PhoenixSsaSpartan
AbaddoniNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct31:22
Brame 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 52:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinW1sh-
SpectremiCKe
GyrocopterFocus
LeshracSumaiL
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Sand Kingqojqva
LinaCTOMAHEH1
EnchantressTaiga
IoSsaSpartan
OracleiNSaNiA
Game 3prediction missed13:44
Brame 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Brame — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautFocus
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Death ProphetW1sh-
Razorqojqva
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
PuckSumaiL
LionCTOMAHEH1
Earth SpiritTaiga
OracleSsaSpartan
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 64%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3