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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 13 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
78%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
50%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 17 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 10 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
qojqva · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 972 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 564 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 708 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 583 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
309 picks · 299 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
302 picks · 294 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 207 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
260 picks · 140 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:25
Brame 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
59% · 9 games45% · 46 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Morphling
MorphlingFocus
46% · 42 games41% · 36 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
50% · 19 games52% · 13 games
Magnusqojqva
Magnus
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
58% · 68 games47% · 35 games
LinaTaiga
Lina
Phoenix
PhoenixSsaSpartan
52% · 53 games52% · 61 game
AbaddoniNSaNiA
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct31:22
Brame 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 52:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
46% · 9 games57% · 3 games
SpectremiCKe
Spectre
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFocus
48% · 18 games38% · 8 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
58% · 26 games52% · 13 games
Sand Kingqojqva
Sand King
Lina
LinaCTOMAHEH1
50% · 10 games54% · 15 games
EnchantressTaiga
Enchantress
Io
IoSsaSpartan
60% · 14 games43% · 38 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed13:44
Brame 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Brame — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautFocus
67% · 97 games37% · 23 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Death Prophet
Death ProphetW1sh-
52% · 174 games58% · 42 games
Razorqojqva
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
55% · 42 games45% · 247 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
46% · 157 games47% · 146 games
Earth SpiritTaiga
Earth Spirit
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
50% · 141 game45% · 153 games
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 64%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3