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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lion
Save- · 5 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 5 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 4 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 4 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 4 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gpK~ · 3 games
100%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 14 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1003 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
417 picks · 608 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 647 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
333 picks · 637 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
328 picks · 281 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
264 picks · 377 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
259 picks · 432 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
Virtus.pro 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNightfall
53% · 65 games52% · 51 game
Troll WarlordAme
Troll Warlord
Doom
DoomgpK~
54% · 10 games57% · 3 games
MagnusNothingToSay
Magnus
Mars
MarsDM
45% · 123 games49% · 89 games
PangolierFaith_bian
Pangolier
Lion
LionSave-
43% · 42 games48% · 66 games
Shadow ShamanXinQ
Shadow Shaman
Enchantress
Enchantress1ls
51% · 44 games58% · 75 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct13:20
Virtus.pro 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNightfall
49% · 113 games51% · 75 games
Troll WarlordAme
Troll Warlord
Mars
MarsDM
47% · 183 games55% · 122 games
Death ProphetNothingToSay
Death Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkagpK~
58% · 33 games40% · 169 games
PuckFaith_bian
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixSave-
56% · 124 games47% · 72 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Enchantress
Enchantress1ls
55% · 47 games46% · 62 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 53%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2