ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lion
Save- · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
gpK~ · 3 games
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
Tusksignature
XinQ · 17 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
441 picks · 1003 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 608 bans
Mars
367 picks · 647 bans
Death Prophet
333 picks · 637 bans
Earth Spirit
328 picks · 281 bans
Phoenix
264 picks · 377 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
Wraith King
259 picks · 432 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
Virtus.pro 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautNightfall
Troll WarlordAme
DoomgpK~
MagnusNothingToSay
MarsDM
PangolierFaith_bian
LionSave-
Shadow ShamanXinQ
Enchantress1ls
Phoenixy`
Game 2prediction correct13:20
Virtus.pro 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNightfall
Troll WarlordAme
MarsDM
Death ProphetNothingToSay
KunkkagpK~
PuckFaith_bian
PhoenixSave-
TuskXinQ
Enchantress1ls
Undyingy`
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 53%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2