ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 12 games
Gyrocoptersignature
LaNm · 11 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 11 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xxs · 7 games
Team Liquid
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 15 games
Pucksignature
miCKe · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
Lone Druidoften banned
qojqva · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
430 picks · 983 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 598 bans
Mars
354 picks · 638 bans
Earth Spirit
318 picks · 272 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 621 bans
Rubick
261 picks · 175 bans
Wraith King
256 picks · 423 bans
Phoenix
254 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
Team Aster 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
IoMonet
SpectremiCKe
Shadow FiendWhite丶Album
Storm Spiritqojqva
MarsXxs
TimbersawBoxi
GyrocopterLaNm
Death ProphetiNSaNiA
43% · 49 games
TuskTaiga
Game 2prediction correct23:14
Team Aster 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMonet
BristlebackmiCKe
MarsXxs
Death Prophetqojqva
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
PangolierBoxi
LunaLaNm
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
51% · 49 games
TuskTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2