Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 8 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 7 games
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 7 games
Grimstroke
Seleri · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 6 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 6 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KheZu · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 5 games
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 6 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 6 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
300 picks · 607 bans
Void Spirit
278 picks · 346 bans
Mars
239 picks · 422 bans
Earth Spirit
226 picks · 179 bans
Keeper of the Light
194 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
193 picks · 104 bans
Nyx Assassin
192 picks · 595 bans
Phoenix
188 picks · 218 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:12
ViKin.gg 41%Brame 59%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanShad
MorphlingFocus
Death ProphetBOOM
Templar AssassinW1sh-
PuckKheZu
GrimstrokeSkyLark
EarthshakerAramis
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
OracleSeleri
TuskSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed30:23
ViKin.gg 37%Brame 63%
The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackShad
IoW1sh-
TimbersawKheZu
ViperFocus
Void SpiritBOOM
BeastmasterSkyLark
Dark WillowAramis
MiranaCTOMAHEH1
Keeper of the LightSeleri
TuskSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 72%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2