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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HOYOloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ZeroTwowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HOYO

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jhocam · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
boombell · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
boombell · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Meracle · 3 games
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Jhocam · 3 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
boombell · 3 games
67%

ZeroTwo

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 4 games
75%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 589 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
263 picks · 333 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
233 picks · 413 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
217 picks · 172 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
190 picks · 353 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
184 picks · 583 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
184 picks · 100 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
183 picks · 244 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% HOYO
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
HOYO 53%ZeroTwo 47%
The model gave 53% on HOYO — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKNP
48% · 23 games53% · 33 games
Phantom AssassinDreamocel
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckFearless
48% · 89 games56% · 83 games
Death ProphetCHYuan
Death Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingMeracle
60% · 56 games40% · 13 games
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
Legion Commander
Rubick
RubickJhocam
35% · 87 games50% · 93 games
Nyx AssassininYourdreaM
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
Clockwerkboombell
50% · 43 games54% · 76 games
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct37:16
HOYO 52%ZeroTwo 48%
The model gave 52% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKNP
25% · 4 games43% · 3 games
AlchemistDreamocel
Alchemist
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFearless
54% · 30 games47% · 13 games
Queen of PainCHYuan
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarMeracle
little data48% · 21 game
Sand Kingxiaoyu154
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierJhocam
47% · 33 games69% · 20 games
EnchantressPoloson
Enchantress
Oracle
Oracleboombell
50% · 16 games43% · 26 games
TuskinYourdreaM
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed10:28
HOYO 51%ZeroTwo 49%
The model gave 51% on HOYO — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKNP
51% · 25 games45% · 31 game
MedusaDreamocel
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritFearless
56% · 80 games52% · 64 games
Death ProphetCHYuan
Death Prophet
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMeracle
34% · 34 games51% · 50 games
Pangolierxiaoyu154
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritJhocam
43% · 86 games59% · 71 game
PhoenixinYourdreaM
Phoenix
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeboombell
41% · 62 games60% · 71 game
Nyx AssassinPoloson
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 56%
Series resultZeroTwo 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3