Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HOYOloss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ZeroTwowin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOYO
Pangolieroften banned
Jhocam · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Ogre Magi
boombell · 4 games
Clockwerk
boombell · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Meracle · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
Rubick
Jhocam · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
boombell · 3 games
ZeroTwo
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 6 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 5 games
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 4 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 589 bans
Void Spirit
263 picks · 333 bans
Mars
233 picks · 413 bans
Earth Spirit
217 picks · 172 bans
Keeper of the Light
190 picks · 353 bans
Nyx Assassin
184 picks · 583 bans
Rubick
184 picks · 100 bans
Wraith King
183 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% HOYO
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
HOYO 53%ZeroTwo 47%
The model gave 53% on HOYO — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKNP
Phantom AssassinDreamocel
PuckFearless
Death ProphetCHYuan
Monkey KingMeracle
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
RubickJhocam
Nyx AssassininYourdreaM
Clockwerkboombell
PhoenixPoloson
Game 2prediction correct37:16
HOYO 52%ZeroTwo 48%
The model gave 52% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinKNP
AlchemistDreamocel
Death ProphetFearless
Queen of PainCHYuan
SlardarMeracle
Sand Kingxiaoyu154
PangolierJhocam
EnchantressPoloson
Oracleboombell
TuskinYourdreaM
Game 3prediction missed10:28
HOYO 51%ZeroTwo 49%
The model gave 51% on HOYO — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinKNP
MedusaDreamocel
Void SpiritFearless
Death ProphetCHYuan
BrewmasterMeracle
Pangolierxiaoyu154
Earth SpiritJhocam
PhoenixinYourdreaM
Grimstrokeboombell
Nyx AssassinPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 56%
Series resultZeroTwo 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3