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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 45 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 39 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 29 games
79%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 29 games
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 28 games
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 26 games
65%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
535 picks · 862 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 374 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 640 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 592 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 792 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 576 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 557 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 487 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:11
Rune Eaters 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 27:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertayowaai
62% · 241 game54% · 172 games
Monkey Kingselfhate
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEthereal
47% · 447 games42% · 285 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterAnkou
49% · 193 games46% · 90 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Rubick
Rubickani-san
51% · 74 games48% · 90 games
DazzleVaniLLl
Dazzle
Treant Protector
Treant Protectormonodrama
60% · 45 games44% · 363 games
Tuskvelheor
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct27:26
Rune Eaters 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunayowaai
42% · 23 games48% · 34 games
Sniperyoung G
Sniper
Kunkka
KunkkaEthereal
46% · 71 game46% · 103 games
TidehunterCovisnine
Tidehunter
Viper
ViperAnkou
57% · 73 games44% · 44 games
Pudgeselfhate
Pudge
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
54% · 192 games50% · 223 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magimonodrama
57% · 45 gameslittle data
Largovelheor
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 79%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2