FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 45 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 39 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 29 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 29 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 28 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 26 games
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Pucksignature
young G · 13 games
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
Underlordoften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
535 picks · 862 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 374 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 592 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 792 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 576 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 557 bans
Mars
341 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:11
Rune Eaters 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 27:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertayowaai
Monkey Kingselfhate
Dragon KnightEthereal
Puckyoung G
TidehunterAnkou
UnderlordCovisnine
Rubickani-san
DazzleVaniLLl
Treant Protectormonodrama
Tuskvelheor
Game 2prediction correct27:26
Rune Eaters 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunayowaai
Sniperyoung G
KunkkaEthereal
TidehunterCovisnine
ViperAnkou
Pudgeselfhate
Shadow Demonani-san
JakiroVaniLLl
Ogre Magimonodrama
Largovelheor
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 79%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2