Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Uniquewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
sayuw · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
EcNart · 4 games
Chenoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Petushara · 3 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
226 picks · 484 bans
Void Spirit
210 picks · 261 bans
Mars
199 picks · 359 bans
Earth Spirit
180 picks · 149 bans
Keeper of the Light
160 picks · 253 bans
Phoenix
154 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
146 picks · 489 bans
Rubick
139 picks · 85 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:18
Team Empire 49%Team Unique 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Empire in 35:05.
Game 2prediction correct7:32
Team Empire 49%Team Unique 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 30:47.
Game 3prediction correct3:26
Team Empire 49%Team Unique 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 23:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 51%
Series resultTeam Unique 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3