Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Linasignature
No!ob · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
Mitch · 8 games
Rubick
dnz · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 6 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mitch · 4 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 4 games
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 6 games
Enchantress
SsaSpartan · 5 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
202 picks · 441 bans
Mars
181 picks · 335 bans
Void Spirit
174 picks · 245 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 138 bans
Phoenix
145 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
138 picks · 231 bans
Nyx Assassin
128 picks · 443 bans
Rubick
124 picks · 75 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:20
Spider Pigzs 59%Brame 41%
The model gave 59% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 50:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursalil pleb
TinkerW1sh-
PuckNo!ob
MorphlingFocus
Rubickdnz
Legion CommanderSkyLark
Dark SeerMitch
Nyx AssassinCTOMAHEH1
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
OracleSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed19:42
Spider Pigzs 60%Brame 40%
The model gave 60% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Brame in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautlil pleb
UrsaFocus
Nature's ProphetNo!ob
BatriderW1sh-
WeaverMitch
Legion CommanderSkyLark
Nyx Assassindnz
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Keeper of the LightSsaSpartan
Game 3prediction missed17:34
Spider Pigzs 59%Brame 41%
The model gave 59% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Brame in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlil pleb
JuggernautFocus
SnapfireNo!ob
Death ProphetW1sh-
UnderlordMitch
LycanSkyLark
Clockwerkdnz
EarthshakerCTOMAHEH1
PhoenixLeBronDota
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 66%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3