Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 3 games
Elder Titan
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Imperial Pro Gaming
Earth Spirit
Muka · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 6 games
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 6 games
Leshracsignature
Askold · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 6 games
Chen
antoha · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
SuperNova · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
130 picks · 237 bans
Puck
128 picks · 295 bans
Earth Spirit
116 picks · 96 bans
Void Spirit
109 picks · 164 bans
Phoenix
101 picks · 109 bans
Nyx Assassin
82 picks · 290 bans
Keeper of the Light
81 picks · 153 bans
Rubick
81 picks · 39 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:47
Brame 48%Imperial Pro Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 1:01:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaFocus
PuckAskold
Void SpiritW1sh-
Death ProphetSuperNova
SlardarSkyLark
Keeper of the Lightantoha
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
ClockwerkMuka
OracleSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct20:34
Brame 49%Imperial Pro Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordFocus
BatriderAskold
PuckW1sh-
BeastmasterSuperNova
Outworld DestroyerSkyLark
Earth SpiritMuka
PhoenixCTOMAHEH1
Ioantoha
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 52%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2