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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
80%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 5 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 3 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
SsaSpartan · 2 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Focus · 2 games
50%

Imperial Pro Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 6 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Askold · 6 games
83%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 6 games
50%
Chen
Chen
antoha · 5 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
SuperNova · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
130 picks · 237 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
128 picks · 295 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
116 picks · 96 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
109 picks · 164 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
101 picks · 109 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
82 picks · 290 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
81 picks · 153 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
81 picks · 39 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:47
Brame 48%Imperial Pro Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 1:01:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFocus
41% · 11 games46% · 52 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritW1sh-
57% · 41 game53% · 15 games
Death ProphetSuperNova
Death Prophet
Slardar
SlardarSkyLark
little data52% · 24 games
Keeper of the Lightantoha
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
45% · 31 game53% · 9 games
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
52% · 17 games
Game 2prediction correct20:34
Brame 49%Imperial Pro Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordFocus
63% · 8 games45% · 28 games
BatriderAskold
Batrider
Puck
PuckW1sh-
55% · 41 game50% · 14 games
BeastmasterSuperNova
Beastmaster
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSkyLark
52% · 9 games41% · 46 games
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixCTOMAHEH1
54% · 34 games53% · 7 games
Ioantoha
Io
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
57% · 3 games
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 52%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2