NoTechies vs Winstrike Team — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

NoTechieswin 2:0

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Winstrike Teamloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoTechies

No games played over 6 months.

Winstrike Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Void Spirit

19 picks · 23 bans

48%

Mars

17 picks · 44 bans

52%

Puck

16 picks · 42 bans

55%

Monkey King

15 picks · 22 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

13 picks · 11 bans

59%

Crystal Maiden

11 picks · 0 bans

47%

Ember Spirit

11 picks · 13 bans

73%

Mirana

11 picks · 17 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% NoTechies

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% NoTechies

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct35:13

NoTechies 53%Winstrike Team 47%

The model gave 53% on NoTechies — the game was taken by NoTechies in 35:37.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo