Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTechies
No games played over 6 months.
Winstrike Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
19 picks · 23 bans
Mars
17 picks · 44 bans
Puck
16 picks · 42 bans
Monkey King
15 picks · 22 bans
Earth Spirit
13 picks · 11 bans
Crystal Maiden
11 picks · 0 bans
Ember Spirit
11 picks · 13 bans
Mirana
11 picks · 17 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% NoTechies
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% NoTechies
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
NoTechies 53%Winstrike Team 47%
The model gave 53% on NoTechies — the game was taken by NoTechies in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritErgon
Ursadyrachyo
BristlebackCrystallize
Leshracre1bl
Vengeful SpiritMalik
Enigmachshrct
Nyx AssassinZayac
Earth Spirityamich
Keeper of the LightSolo
OraclePanto
Game 2prediction correct26:12
NoTechies 50%Winstrike Team 50%
The model gave 50% on NoTechies — the game was taken by NoTechies in 25:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawMalik
Leshracre1bl
Void SpiritErgon
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
WeaverCrystallize
Marschshrct
Bounty HunterZayac
Phoenixyamich
Witch DoctorSolo
DisruptorPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteNoTechies · 50%
Series resultNoTechies 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2