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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 20 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 19 games
37%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
53%

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 9 games
89%
Windranger
Windranger
chempik · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
40%
Largo
Largooften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
494 picks · 353 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
391 picks · 238 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 348 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 633 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
318 picks · 231 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
298 picks · 401 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
291 picks · 277 bans
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 306 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total62% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 38%Level UP 62%
The model gave 62% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Nemiga Gaming 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 16:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophosyoung G
49% · 57 games43% · 49 games
AlchemistWoE
Alchemist
Axe
AxeCovisnine
46% · 171 game50% · 86 games
UndyingBb3px
Undying
Kez
Kezbyun
50% · 128 games52% · 237 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Techies
Techiesariel
45% · 76 games58% · 112 games
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
Keeper of the Light
Lich
LichJANTER
54% · 71 game49% · 19 games
Witch DoctorHtrd
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 62%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2