EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Hoodwink
ariel · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 20 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 19 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
Rubick
ariel · 16 games
Tusk
ariel · 16 games
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
Level UP
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 9 games
Windranger
chempik · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Largooften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
494 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
391 picks · 238 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 348 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 633 bans
Windranger
318 picks · 231 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 401 bans
Bane
291 picks · 277 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total62% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 38%Level UP 62%
The model gave 62% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Nemiga Gaming 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 16:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosyoung G
AlchemistWoE
AxeCovisnine
UndyingBb3px
Kezbyun
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Techiesariel
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
LichJANTER
Witch DoctorHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 62%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2