?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 22 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
fy · 14 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 13 games
62%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 13 games
69%

Vici Gaming

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 8 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
565 picks · 645 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 329 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 685 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
458 picks · 170 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 529 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
430 picks · 204 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 528 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 498 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Xtreme Gaming 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
45% · 51 game58% · 41 game
Kezshiro
Kez
Windranger
WindrangerAme
43% · 143 games54% · 165 games
Sand KingXm
Sand King
Mars
MarsXxs
48% · 190 games56% · 149 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Warlock
WarlockxNova
43% · 206 games52% · 261 game
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark Willowfy
48% · 166 games54% · 140 games
Dazzley`
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed15:22
Xtreme Gaming 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
46% · 17 games61% · 48 games
Huskarshiro
Huskar
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
45% · 224 games59% · 32 games
ViperXm
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
42% · 147 games55% · 173 games
SlardarWs
Slardar
Lion
Lionfy
48% · 64 games52% · 125 games
MarcipLAnet
Marci
Enchantress
EnchantressxNova
43% · 119 games56% · 193 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct41:36
Xtreme Gaming 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
47% · 322 games44% · 53 games
ViperXm
Viper
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
56% · 317 games54% · 251 game
Sand KingWs
Sand King
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
44% · 158 games59% · 274 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerfy
37% · 58 games53% · 430 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
48% · 469 games52% · 316 games
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3