BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlocksignature
xNova · 22 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
Disruptor
xNova · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
fy · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 13 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 13 games
Vici Gaming
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 7 games
Disruptor
Dy · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 5 games
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
565 picks · 645 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 329 bans
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 685 bans
Snapfire
458 picks · 170 bans
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 529 bans
Hoodwink
430 picks · 204 bans
Mars
392 picks · 528 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Xtreme Gaming 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerNothingToSay
Kezshiro
WindrangerAme
Sand KingXm
MarsXxs
TimbersawWs
WarlockxNova
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
Dark Willowfy
Dazzley`
Game 2prediction missed15:22
Xtreme Gaming 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerAme
Huskarshiro
TinyNothingToSay
ViperXm
TidehunterXxs
SlardarWs
Lionfy
MarcipLAnet
EnchantressxNova
Shadow Demony`
Game 3prediction correct41:36
Xtreme Gaming 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAme
ViperXm
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Sand KingWs
TimbersawXxs
Ursashiro
Spirit Breakerfy
Warlocky`
JakiroxNova
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3