DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 61 game
Snapfire
Seleri · 46 games
Pudge
yamich · 44 games
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 37 games
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 37 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
Marssignature
BOOM · 31 game
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 13 games
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 10 games
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 7 games
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Raven · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 360 bans
Hoodwink
614 picks · 305 bans
Jakiro
592 picks · 517 bans
Dragon Knight
582 picks · 724 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
546 picks · 331 bans
Mars
511 picks · 763 bans
Centaur Warrunner
507 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 32%
Hero pool strength61% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:14
MOUZ 74%Team Nemesis 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Viper4nalog
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Ursa23savage
WindrangerMidOne
AxeJabz
SnapfireSeleri
TuskJhocam
Ember Spirityamich
WarlockNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct38:6
MOUZ 74%Team Nemesis 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 22:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMidOne
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Primal Beast4nalog
MarsBOOM
Windranger23savage
ChenSeleri
Bounty HunterJhocam
Tuskyamich
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 89%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2