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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Nemesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 61 game
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 46 games
54%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 44 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 37 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 37 games
68%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 31 game
65%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 13 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
45%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 10 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Ponyo · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Raven · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
778 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
614 picks · 305 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
592 picks · 517 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
582 picks · 724 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
546 picks · 331 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
511 picks · 763 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
507 picks · 582 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 32%
Hero pool strength61% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:14
MOUZ 74%Team Nemesis 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCrystallis
55% · 237 games39% · 44 games
Viper4nalog
Viper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
57% · 316 games50% · 276 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Windranger
WindrangerMidOne
44% · 142 games50% · 198 games
AxeJabz
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
53% · 325 games45% · 474 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityamich
53% · 322 games49% · 350 games
WarlockNARMAN
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct38:6
MOUZ 74%Team Nemesis 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 22:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
46% · 296 games52% · 395 games
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
Centaur Warrunner
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
48% · 262 games55% · 221 game
Primal Beast4nalog
Primal Beast
Mars
MarsBOOM
42% · 243 games51% · 208 games
Windranger23savage
Windranger
Chen
ChenSeleri
56% · 200 games49% · 196 games
Bounty HunterJhocam
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
Tuskyamich
49% · 344 games53% · 325 games
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 89%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2