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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 39 games
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 30 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 25 games
72%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Batyuk · 25 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
QBFY · 24 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 23 games
39%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 30 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
76%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
776 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
603 picks · 302 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
577 picks · 485 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
564 picks · 698 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 318 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
501 picks · 754 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 561 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
Passion UA 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerCrystallize
51% · 108 games46% · 223 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Huskar
HuskarMoonlight
52% · 65 games45% · 84 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Axe
AxeBatyuk
44% · 147 games46% · 177 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
52% · 116 games58% · 94 games
Naga SirenRein
Naga Siren
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
54% · 189 games56% · 47 games
Rikiswedenstrong
Riki
Game 2prediction correct16:43
Passion UA 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 24:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
53% · 296 games50% · 283 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Axe
AxeBatyuk
46% · 188 games48% · 314 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Sand King
Sand KingMoonlight
54% · 244 games48% · 303 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
48% · 379 games60% · 53 games
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Spirit Breaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
50% · 317 games46% · 471 game
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2