DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Snapfire
kreker · 39 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 30 games
Jakiro
kreker · 25 games
Tinysignature
QBFY · 25 games
Void Spirit
Batyuk · 25 games
Ringmaster
QBFY · 24 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Crystallize · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 23 games
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
Warlock
kasane · 30 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 23 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
776 picks · 360 bans
Hoodwink
603 picks · 302 bans
Jakiro
577 picks · 485 bans
Dragon Knight
564 picks · 698 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 318 bans
Mars
501 picks · 754 bans
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 561 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
Passion UA 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerCrystallize
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
HuskarMoonlight
LeshracSquad1x
AxeBatyuk
MarsSSS
Dazzlekreker
Naga SirenRein
Shadow DemonQBFY
Rikiswedenstrong
Game 2prediction correct16:43
Passion UA 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 24:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
AbaddonMunkushi~
AxeBatyuk
MarsSSS
Sand KingMoonlight
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Snapfirekreker
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
HoodwinkQBFY
JakiroRein
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2