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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tideboundloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 22 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 20 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Watson · 17 games
65%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 27 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Echo · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
niu · 15 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
602 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
574 picks · 472 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
558 picks · 690 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 312 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
499 picks · 750 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 555 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:21
Team Yandex 60%Team Tidebound 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
45% · 164 games49% · 261 game
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Windranger
WindrangerWatson
49% · 179 games57% · 47 games
Keeper of the LightEcho
Keeper of the Light
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
51% · 139 games55% · 147 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenMalady
54% · 163 games50% · 54 games
Crystal Maideny`
Crystal Maiden
Lion
LionSaksa
41% · 79 games49% · 215 games
RingmasterpLAnet
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed14:44
Team Yandex 60%Team Tidebound 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 48:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWatson
51% · 123 games50% · 191 game
PuckEcho
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
52% · 176 games49% · 152 games
Abaddonshiro
Abaddon
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
46% · 188 games52% · 206 games
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
48% · 309 games52% · 176 games
Snapfirey`
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMalady
51% · 54 games49% · 125 games
ClockwerkpLAnet
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct21:15
Team Yandex 56%Team Tidebound 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
47% · 348 games53% · 207 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Kez
KezWatson
41% · 45 games60% · 281 game
PuckEcho
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
46% · 437 games52% · 262 games
Marsniu
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
43% · 125 games56% · 225 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressMalady
49% · 238 games51% · 218 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 67%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3