DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tideboundloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 24 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 22 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Warlock
Solo · 20 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Watson · 17 games
Team Tidebound
Disruptor
y` · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
Pucksignature
Echo · 16 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
niu · 15 games
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
Hoodwink
602 picks · 300 bans
Jakiro
574 picks · 472 bans
Dragon Knight
558 picks · 690 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 312 bans
Mars
499 picks · 750 bans
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:21
Team Yandex 60%Team Tidebound 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawNoticed
Gyrocoptershiro
WindrangerWatson
Keeper of the LightEcho
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Primal Beastniu
ChenMalady
Crystal Maideny`
LionSaksa
RingmasterpLAnet
Game 2prediction missed14:44
Team Yandex 60%Team Tidebound 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 48:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautWatson
PuckEcho
TidehunterNoticed
Abaddonshiro
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Shadow DemonSaksa
Snapfirey`
GrimstrokeMalady
ClockwerkpLAnet
Game 3prediction correct21:15
Team Yandex 56%Team Tidebound 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterNoticed
Ursashiro
KezWatson
PuckEcho
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Marsniu
WindrangerSaksa
HoodwinkpLAnet
EnchantressMalady
Shadow Demony`
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 67%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3