PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
Tusk
Boxi · 26 games
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 23 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 19 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 19 games
GamerLegion
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
743 picks · 351 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 635 bans
Hoodwink
540 picks · 290 bans
Tusk
437 picks · 260 bans
Puck
436 picks · 1182 bans
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 475 bans
Mars
427 picks · 709 bans
Jakiro
384 picks · 247 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% GamerLegion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Team Liquid 85%GamerLegion 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeavermiCKe
Troll WarlordYamSun
Centaur WarrunnerAce
BeastmasterRCY
SlardarNisha
PangolierFayde
SnapfiretOfu
ChenSpeeed
BatriderBoxi
Skywrath MageBignum
Game 2prediction correct27:7
Team Liquid 85%GamerLegion 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezmiCKe
Troll WarlordYamSun
SlardarAce
BeastmasterRCY
PangolierNisha
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
BatriderBoxi
ChenSpeeed
Winter WyverntOfu
Shadow DemonBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 97%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2