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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 34 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 33 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 31 game
39%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 30 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
54%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
61%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
700 picks · 338 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 615 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
476 picks · 253 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1138 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 671 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
392 picks · 250 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 376 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
342 picks · 392 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:49
4Pirates 30%Team Tidebound 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursazvёzd
53% · 202 games42% · 137 games
Troll Warlordshiro
Troll Warlord
Slardar
SlardarNattyNarwhal
52% · 196 games45% · 269 games
PuckEcho
Puck
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
56% · 145 games46% · 232 games
Marsniu
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
51% · 269 games54% · 182 games
MarcipLAnet
Marci
Disruptor
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
52% · 303 games48% · 295 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct16:48
4Pirates 29%Team Tidebound 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
56% · 268 games55% · 267 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Muerta
Muertazvёzd
46% · 275 games49% · 199 games
Axeniu
Axe
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
46% · 347 games48% · 479 games
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Batrider
Batriderariel
54% · 352 games47% · 315 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
45% · 397 games53% · 379 games
Pugnay`
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 85%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2