DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 34 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 31 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 30 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
Dazzlesignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
700 picks · 338 bans
Disruptor
579 picks · 615 bans
Hoodwink
476 picks · 253 bans
Puck
401 picks · 1138 bans
Mars
395 picks · 671 bans
Tusk
392 picks · 250 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 376 bans
Pugna
342 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:49
4Pirates 30%Team Tidebound 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursazvёzd
Troll Warlordshiro
SlardarNattyNarwhal
PuckEcho
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Marsniu
Hoodwinkariel
MarcipLAnet
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
Jakiroy`
Game 2prediction correct16:48
4Pirates 29%Team Tidebound 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
Ursashiro
Muertazvёzd
Axeniu
Pangolierмистер мораль
Dragon KnightEcho
Batriderariel
HoodwinkpLAnet
TuskPERDAN4IK
Pugnay`
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 85%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2