DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionPPPerrito Panzonloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perrito Panzon
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 4 games
Phoenix
MoOz · 4 games
Puckoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 3 games
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 2 games
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 39 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 25 games
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 20 games
Tusk
Wein · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
685 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 598 bans
Hoodwink
460 picks · 237 bans
Mars
386 picks · 660 bans
Puck
382 picks · 1115 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
335 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:25
Perrito Panzon 54%eSpoiled 46%
The model gave 54% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeK1
Dragon Knightssnovv1
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
Pangolierdualrazee
Queen of PainPiPi
WarlockGarbat1y
ChenMoOz
Bounty HunterWein
TuskElmisho
Game 2prediction missed14:31
Perrito Panzon 55%eSpoiled 45%
The model gave 55% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterK1
Terrorbladessnovv1
Storm SpiritPiPi
Timbersawdualrazee
DoomFrank
Snapfireasdekor_r
JakiroMoOz
TuskWein
LionElmisho
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 58%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2