DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 32 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 26 games
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
Banesignature
kasane · 19 games
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 17 games
Batridersignature
Kaori · 15 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 14 games
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 14 games
Morphlingsignature
Nande · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
670 picks · 322 bans
Disruptor
565 picks · 578 bans
Hoodwink
429 picks · 226 bans
Puck
406 picks · 1156 bans
Mars
382 picks · 643 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 257 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 400 bans
Warlock
352 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:8
1w Team 64%Pipsqueak+4 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSquad1x
JuggernautNande
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Storm SpiritCopy
UnderlordSSS
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Naga Sirenkasane
SnapfireEkki
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
JakiroKidaro
Game 2prediction correct33:23
1w Team 63%Pipsqueak+4 37%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Dragon KnightCopy
PuckSquad1x
PudgeNande
AxeSSS
VenomancerPalantimos
Naga Sirenkasane
DazzleKidaro
Snapfireswedenstrong
TuskEkki
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 74%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2