?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 32 games
66%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 26 games
77%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
kasane · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 14 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nande · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
670 picks · 322 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 578 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
429 picks · 226 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1156 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 643 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 257 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 400 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 157 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:8
1w Team 64%Pipsqueak+4 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSquad1x
55% · 277 games40% · 47 games
JuggernautNande
Juggernaut
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
49% · 287 games48% · 309 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordSSS
47% · 73 games49% · 192 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenkasane
64% · 152 games53% · 321 game
SnapfireEkki
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
48% · 345 games46% · 265 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct33:23
1w Team 63%Pipsqueak+4 37%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
47% · 214 games49% · 339 games
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckSquad1x
49% · 315 games48% · 95 games
PudgeNande
Pudge
Axe
AxeSSS
50% · 108 games63% · 20 games
VenomancerPalantimos
Venomancer
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenkasane
53% · 109 games62% · 118 games
DazzleKidaro
Dazzle
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
47% · 208 games42% · 382 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 74%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2