?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 18 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 14 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
92%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
77%

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
4nalog · 15 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 14 games
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
657 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
563 picks · 573 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
416 picks · 223 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1155 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 634 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 260 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 399 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 159 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:19
Team Spirit 54%Heroic 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
40% · 83 games47% · 133 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
47% · 207 games53% · 84 games
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
45% · 132 games57% · 160 games
MarsDavai
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
48% · 111 games62% · 147 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
47% · 249 games53% · 258 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Team Spirit 53%Heroic 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
52% · 222 games53% · 250 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Puck
PuckLarl
47% · 231 game47% · 245 games
Queen of PainWisper
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
45% · 141 game53% · 152 games
Night StalkerYuma
Night Stalker
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
49% · 307 games52% · 269 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskrue
50% · 314 games52% · 299 games
SnapfireKJ
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2