FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 18 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 14 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 18 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Pucksignature
4nalog · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 14 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
657 picks · 321 bans
Disruptor
563 picks · 573 bans
Hoodwink
416 picks · 223 bans
Puck
406 picks · 1155 bans
Mars
379 picks · 634 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 260 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 399 bans
Warlock
354 picks · 159 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:19
Team Spirit 54%Heroic 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYatoro
SvenYuma
Queen of PainLarl
EnigmaWisper
Primal BeastCollapse
MarsDavai
Bounty Hunterrue
ChenKJ
JakiroPanto
TuskScofield
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Team Spirit 53%Heroic 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
Dark SeerDavai
PuckLarl
Queen of PainWisper
SlardarCollapse
Night StalkerYuma
JakiroPanto
HoodwinkScofield
Tuskrue
SnapfireKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2