BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Jakiro
Miposhka · 12 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
Banesignature
Kataomi · 30 games
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 25 games
Windrangersignature
Save- · 25 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Muerta
Save- · 21 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
605 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
528 picks · 526 bans
Puck
390 picks · 1091 bans
Hoodwink
361 picks · 188 bans
Mars
351 picks · 592 bans
Pugna
348 picks · 390 bans
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 259 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:11
Team Spirit 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYatoro
JuggernautKiritych
Queen of PainLarl
BristlebackMieRo
SlardarCollapse
Sand KinggpK~
Snapfirerue
BaneKataomi
JakiroPanto
GrimstrokeSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1