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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
44%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
53%

BETBOOM TEAM

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 29 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 25 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Save- · 25 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 24 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 21 game
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 20 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
580 picks · 290 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
512 picks · 518 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 1058 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
342 picks · 176 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
342 picks · 389 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
340 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 578 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
327 picks · 243 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 6
Model total75% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:38
Team Falcons 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
46% · 319 games54% · 226 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
46% · 198 games51% · 301 game
Nature's ProphetgpK~
Nature's Prophet
Magnus
MagnusATF
52% · 240 games54% · 382 games
BristlebackKiritych
Bristleback
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
44% · 191 game56% · 277 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskSneyking
47% · 386 games51% · 148 games
BaneKataomi
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 75%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1