BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
Banesignature
Kataomi · 29 games
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 25 games
Windrangersignature
Save- · 25 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Muertasignature
Save- · 20 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
580 picks · 290 bans
Disruptor
512 picks · 518 bans
Puck
382 picks · 1058 bans
Hoodwink
342 picks · 176 bans
Pugna
342 picks · 389 bans
Warlock
340 picks · 156 bans
Mars
337 picks · 578 bans
Tusk
327 picks · 243 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 6
Model total75% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:38
Team Falcons 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSatanic
TimbersawMieRo
Sand KingMalr1ne
Nature's ProphetgpK~
MagnusATF
BristlebackKiritych
SnapfireCr1t-
Shadow DemonSave-
TuskSneyking
BaneKataomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 75%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1